Dawn's long and productive expedition in deep space is about to enter a new phase.
Building on the successes of its primary mission and its first extended mission, NASA has approved the veteran explorer for a second extended mission. Dawn will undertake ambitious new investigations of dwarf planet Ceres, its permanent residence far from Earth.
It was not a foregone conclusion that Dawn would conduct further operations. In part, that's because it is only one of many exciting and important missions NASA has underway, and more are being designed and built. But the universe is a big place, as you may have noticed if you've ever gazed in awestruck reflection at the night sky (or had to search for a parking space in Los Angeles). It simply isn't possible to do everything we want. Entrusted with precious taxpayers' dollars, NASA has to make well-considered choices about what to do and what not to do.
In addition, as we have discussed in detail, Earth's ambassador to two giants in the main asteroid belt has had to contend with severe life-limiting problems. Dawn's reaction wheels have failed, and now it has consumed most of its original small supply of hydrazine that it uses in compensation. It has also expended most of the xenon propellant for its uniquely capable ion propulsion system. It was not clear that a truly productive future would be possible for this aged, damaged ship with some supplies that are so limited. Fortunately, Dawn has endless supplies of creativity, ingenuity, dedication and enthusiasm.
For several months, the flight team has been studying the feasibility of flying the spaceship closer to Ceres than had ever been seriously considered. Dawn spent more than eight months in 2015-2016 circling about 240 miles (385 kilometers) above the dwarf planet. It had spectacular views of mysterious landscapes and acquired a wealth of data far beyond what the team had anticipated. Then Dawn flew to a higher altitude during its first extended mission for new observations. Now engineers are making progress on ways to operate the spacecraft in an elliptical orbit that would allow it to swoop down to below 125 miles (200 kilometers) for a few minutes on each revolution. Their results so far are very encouraging. There are still many complex technical problems to solve, and months of additional work remain. Dawn can wait relatively patiently in its current orbit, where it expends hydrazine quite parsimoniously as it measures cosmic rays.
The promising potential for observing Ceres in elliptical orbits from closer than ever before makes a second extended mission there extremely attractive. NASA and the panel of scientists and engineers convened to provide an independent, objective assessment concluded that further exploration of Ceres would be the most valuable assignment for the spacecraft. It is noteworthy that Dawn is the only spacecraft ever to orbit two extraterrestrial destinations and even now, having significantly exceeded its original objectives, has the capability to leave Ceres and pay a brief visit to a third (although it does not have enough xenon left to orbit a third), but the prospects for new discoveries at Ceres are too great to pass up.
Ceres is not only the largest object between Mars and Jupiter but also certainly one of the most intriguing. In fact, motivated by what Dawn has found, there is now great interest in the possibility of sending a lander there someday. Anything more Dawn can do to learn about Ceres or to help pave the way for a subsequent mission will be of great importance.
Ceres is just too fascinating to abandon! Dawn has already revealed the dwarf planet to be an exotic world of ice, rock and salt, with organic materials and other chemical constituents, and now we can look forward to more discoveries. After all, the benefit of having the capability to orbit a distant destination, rather than being limited to a quick glimpse during a fleeting flyby, is that we can linger to scrutinize it and uncover even more of the secrets it holds. (Some readers may also draw inspiration from Ceres' ingredients to concoct recipes for treats to give out to Halloween visitors.)
In addition to the possibility of observing Ceres from unprecedentedly close, there are other benefits to keeping our sophisticated probe at work there. For now, let's consider two of them, both related to how long it takes Ceres to complete its stately orbit around the sun. One Cerean year is 4.6 terrestrial years.
The dwarf planet carries its robotic moon with it as it follows its elliptical path around the sun. In fact, all orbits, including Earth’s, are ellipses. Ceres’ orbit is more elliptical than Earth’s but not as much as some of the other planets. The shape of Ceres’ orbit is between that of Saturn (which is more circular) and Mars (which is more elliptical). (Of course, Ceres’ orbit is larger than Mars’ and smaller than Saturn’s, but here we are considering how much each orbit deviates from a perfect circle, regardless of the size.)
When Dawn arrived at Ceres in March 2015, they were 2.87 AU from the sun. That was well before the dwarf planet's orbit carried them to the maximum solar distance of 2.98 AU in January 2016. Now, with the second extended mission, the spacecraft will still be operating when Ceres reaches its minimum solar distance of 2.56 AU in April 2018. Dawn will keep a sharp eye out for any changes caused by being somewhat closer to the sun.
The extension also will give scientists the opportunity to examine Ceres with the different lighting caused by the change of seasons. Ceres' slower heliocentric orbit than Earth's means seasons last longer on that distant world. It was near the end of autumn in the southern hemisphere when Dawn took up residence at Ceres. Winter came to that hemisphere on July 24, 2015, when the sun reached its greatest northern latitude. The sun crossed the equator, bringing spring to the southern hemisphere, on Nov. 13, 2016, and summer begins on Dec. 22 of this year. Autumn, when the sun will leave the southern hemisphere, is more than one (terrestrial) year later. Most of Dawn's observations so far were made with the sun in the northern hemisphere. Now Dawn will have new opportunities to see the southern hemisphere with similar illumination.
In the coming months, as the team develops and refines its plans, we will describe how they will pilot the ship down to very low altitudes and what new measurements they will make. Before the new phase gets underway, however, you can explore Ceres (and other planets) yourself with Google maps (some functions don't work in some web browsers). Even though it does not use Dawn's sharpest photos, it should be more than adequate for most of your navigational needs. (It isn't quite adequate for Dawn's needs, but that's no cause for worry, because JPL navigators employ somewhat more sophisticated and accurate methods.)
What will Dawn find when it ventures closer to the ground than ever before? What will the new perspectives reveal about a strange world from the dawn of the solar system? What new challenges will the adventurer confront as it pushes further into uncharted territory? We don't know, but stay onboard as we find out together, for that is an essential element both of the tremendously successful process of science and the powerful thrill of exploration.
Dawn is 21,600 miles (34,700 kilometers) from Ceres. It is also 2.47 AU (229 million miles, or 369 million kilometers) from Earth, or 970 times as far as the moon and 2.49 times as far as the sun today. Radio signals, traveling at the universal limit of the speed of light, take 41 minutes to make the round trip.
Dr. Marc D. Rayman
2:30 p.m. PDT October 31, 2017
The super Earth that came home for dinner
It might be lingering bashfully on the icy outer edges of our solar system, hiding in the dark, but subtly pulling strings behind the scenes: stretching out the orbits of distant bodies, perhaps even tilting the entire solar system to one side.
If a planet is there, it’s extremely distant and will stay that way (with no chance – in case you’re wondering – of ever colliding with Earth, or bringing “days of darkness”). It is a possible Planet Nine, a world perhaps 10 times the mass of Earth and 20 times farther from the sun than Neptune. The signs so far are indirect, mainly its gravitational footprints, but that adds up to a compelling case nonetheless.
One of its most dedicated trackers, in fact, says it is now harder to imagine our solar system without a Planet Nine than with one.
“There are now five different lines of observational evidence pointing to the existence of Planet Nine,” said Konstantin Batygin, a planetary astrophysicist at Caltech whose team may be closing in. “If you were to remove this explanation, and imagine Planet Nine does not exist, then you generate more problems than you solve. All of a sudden, you have five different puzzles, and you must come up with five different theories to explain them.”
Batygin and his co-author, Caltech astronomer Mike Brown, described the first three breadcrumbs on Planet Nine’s trail in a January 2016 paper, published in the Astronomical Journal. Six known objects in the distant Kuiper Belt, a region of icy bodies stretching from Neptune outward toward interstellar space, all have elliptical orbits pointing in the same direction. That would be unlikely – and suspicious – enough. But these orbits also are tilted the same way, about 30 degrees “downward” compared to the pancake-like plane within which the planets orbit the sun.
Breadcrumb number three: Computer simulations of the solar system with Planet Nine included show that there should be more objects tilted with respect to the solar plane. In fact, the tilt would be on the order of 90 degrees, as if the plane of the solar system and these objects formed an “X” when viewed edge-on. Sure enough, Brown realized that five such objects already known to astronomers fill the bill.
Two more clues emerged after the original paper. A second article from the team, this time led by Batygin’s graduate student, Elizabeth Bailey, showed that Planet Nine could have tilted the planets of our solar system during the last 4.5 billion years. This could explain a longstanding mystery: Why is the plane in which the planets orbit tilted about 6 degrees compared to the sun's equator?
“Over long periods of time, Planet Nine will make the entire solar-system plane precess or wobble, just like a top on a table,” Batygin said.
The last telltale sign of Planet Nine’s presence involves the solar system’s contrarians: objects from the Kuiper Belt that orbit in the opposite direction from everything else in the solar system. Planet Nine’s orbital influence would explain why these bodies from the distant Kuiper Belt end up “polluting” the inner Kuiper Belt.
“No other model can explain the weirdness of these high-inclination orbits,” Batygin said. “It turns out that Planet Nine provides a natural avenue for their generation. These things have been twisted out of the solar system plane with help from Planet Nine and then scattered inward by Neptune.”
The remaining step is to find Planet Nine itself. Batygin and Brown are using the Subaru Telescope in Hawaii’s Mauna Kea Observatory to try to do just that. The instrument is the “best tool” for picking out dim, extremely distant objects lost in huge swaths of sky, Batygin said.
But where did Planet Nine come from? Batygin says he spends little time ruminating on its origin – whether it is a fugitive from our own solar system or, just maybe, a wandering rogue planet captured by the sun’s gravity.
“I think Planet Nine’s detection will tell us something about its origin,” he said.
Other scientists offer a different possible explanation for the Planet Nine evidence cited by Batygin. A recent analysis based on a sky mapping project called the Outer Solar System Origins Survey, which discovered more than 800 new “trans-Neptunian objects,” or TNOs, suggests that the evidence also could be consistent with a random distribution of such objects. Still, the analysis, from a team led by Cory Shankman of the University of Victoria, could not rule out Planet Nine.
If Planet Nine is found, it will be a homecoming of sorts, or at least a family reunion. Over the past 20 years, surveys of planets around other stars in our galaxy have found the most common types to be “super Earths” and their somewhat larger cousins – bigger than Earth but smaller than Neptune.
Yet these common, garden-variety planets are conspicuously absent from our solar system. Weighing in at roughly 10 times Earth’s mass, the proposed Planet Nine would make a good fit.
Planet Nine could turn out to be our missing super Earth.
This orrery was built for NASA/JPL by Pre-Mec Engineering, Inc. and was designed by JPL engineer Raymond A. McCreary (Design Section, 356 – part of the Engineering Mechanics Division).
The scale of Earth and its moon was approximately 1 cm = 6000 km, but the scale of orbits, the Sun, and other moons varied.
Computer animations did not exist in the early 1960s, and like a trajectory model, this orrery helped engineers plan, visualize, and demonstrate the expected flight path, flyby, or landing to be made by a spacecraft. Missions in development at this time were Ranger and Surveyor (lunar missions), Mariner 2 to Venus, and Mariner 4 to Mars.
For more information about the history of JPL, contact the JPL Archives for assistance. [Archival and other sources: Section 321 photo album and index, and JPL/Caltech phone directories
A decade after leaving its first home in the solar system, Dawn is healthy and successful at its current residence.
Even as the veteran explorer orbits high over dwarf planet Ceres and looks forward to continuing its mission, today it can reflect upon 10 exciting and productive years (or equivalently, with its present perspective, 2.17 exciting and productive Cerean years).
The ambitious adventurer embarked on an extraordinary extraterrestrial expedition on Sept. 27, 2007. With its advanced ion propulsion system, Dawn soared past Mars in 2009. The spacecraft took some of the Red Planet’s orbital energy around the sun to boost itself on its journey. (Nevertheless, this extra energy amounts to less than a quarter of what the ion engines have provided.) Ever a responsible citizen of the cosmos, Dawn fully adheres to the principle of the conservation of energy. So to compensate for speeding up, it slowed Mars down.
In 2011, the spacecraft arrived at Vesta, the second largest object in the main asteroid belt between Mars and Jupiter. Dawn gracefully entered into Vesta’s firm but gentle gravitational embrace. The probe maneuvered extensively in orbit, optimizing its views to get the best return possible from its photography and other observations. During 14 months in orbit, Dawn completed 1,298 revolutions around Vesta, taking nearly 31,000 pictures and collecting a wealth of other scientific measurements. From the perspective it had then, Dawn was in residence for nearly a third of a Vestan year (or almost 1,900 Vestan days). The explorer revealed a strange, ancient protoplanet, now recognized to be more closely related to the terrestrial planets (including the one Dawn left 10 years ago) than to the typical and smaller asteroids.
Unlike all other deep-space missions, Dawn had the capability to leave its first orbital destination and voyage to and enter orbit around another. After smoothly disengaging from Vesta, the interplanetary spaceship flew more than 900 million miles (1.5 billion kilometers) in 2.5 years to Ceres, the largest object in the asteroid belt. Indeed, prior to Dawn’s arrival, that dwarf planet was the largest body between the sun and dwarf planet Pluto that a spacecraft had not yet visited. And just as at Vesta, thanks to the maneuverability of ion propulsion, Dawn did not have to be content with a one-time flyby, gathering only as much data as possible during a brief encounter. By going into orbit around Ceres, the spacecraft could linger to scrutinize the exotic, alien world. And that is exactly what it has done.
Both Vesta and Ceres have held secrets since the dawn of the solar system, and both have beckoned since they were first spotted in telescopes at the dawn of the 19th century. For the next two centuries, they appeared as little more than faint smudges of light amidst myriad glittering stellar jewels, waiting for an inquisitive and admiring visitor from Earth. Finally, Dawn answered their cosmic invitations and eventually developed richly detailed, intimate portraits of each.
As the last stop on a unique interplanetary journey of discovery, Ceres has proven well worth the wait. Since arriving in March 2015 (more than half a Cerean year ago, or nearly 2,500 Cerean days ago), Dawn has completed 1,595 revolutions. It has beheld mysterious and fascinating landscapes and unveiled a complex world of rock, ice and salt, along with organic compounds and other intriguing constituents. The dwarf planet may have been covered by an ocean long ago, and there might even be liquid water underground now. The 57,000 pictures and numerous other measurements with the sophisticated sensors will keep scientists busy for many years (both terrestrial and Cerean).
By early 2016, during its ninth year in space, Dawn had accomplished so much that it exceeded all of the original objectives established for it by NASA before the ship set sail. Along the way, Dawn encountered and ultimately overcame many obstacles, including equipment failures that could well have sunk the mission. Against all odds and expectations, however, when its prime mission concluded in June 2016, the spacecraft was still healthy enough that NASA decided to extend the mission to learn still more about Ceres. Since then, Dawn has conducted many investigations that had never even been considered prior to last year. Now it has successfully achieved all of the extended mission objectives. And, once again defying predictions thanks to expert piloting by the flight team (and a small dose of good luck), Dawn still has some life left in it. Before the end of the year, NASA will formulate another new set of objectives that will take it to the end of its operational life.
Dawn has flown to many different orbital altitudes and orientations to examine Ceres. Now the probe is in an elliptical orbit, ranging from less than 3,200 miles (5,100 kilometers) up to 23,800 miles (38,300 kilometers). At these heights, it is measuring cosmic rays. Scientists mathematically remove the cosmic ray noise from Dawn’s 2015-2016 recordings of atomic elements from a low, tight orbit at only 240 miles (385 kilometers).
In its present orbit, Dawn can make these measurements to clarify Ceres’ nuclear signals while being very frugal with its precious hydrazine, which is so crucial because of the loss of three reaction wheels. (The small supply was not loaded onboard with the intention of compensating for failed reaction wheels.) When the hydrazine is expended, the mission will end. So this high elliptical orbit is a very good place to be while NASA and the Dawn project are determining how best to use the spacecraft in the future.
Meanwhile, this anniversary presents a convenient opportunity to look back on a remarkable spaceflight. For those who would like to track the probe’s progress in the same terms used on past anniversaries, we present here the tenth annual summary, reusing text from previous years with updates where appropriate. Readers who wish to investigate Dawn’s ambitious journey in detail may find it helpful to compare this material with the Dawn Journals from its first, second, third, fourth, fifth, sixth, seventh, eighth and ninth anniversaries.
In its 10 years of interplanetary travels, the spacecraft has thrust with its ion engines for a total of 2,109 days (5.8 years), or 58 percent of the time (and 0.000000042 percent of the time since the Big Bang). While for most spacecraft, firing a thruster to change course is a special event, it is Dawn’s wont. All this thrusting has cost the craft only 908 pounds (412 kilograms) of its supply of xenon propellant, which was 937 pounds (425 kilograms) on Sept. 27, 2007. The spacecraft has used 69 of the 71 gallons (262 of the 270 liters) of xenon it carried when it rode its rocket from Earth into space.
The thrusting since then has achieved the equivalent of accelerating the probe by 25,400 mph (40,900 kilometers per hour). As previous logs have described (see here for one of the more extensive discussions), because of the principles of motion for orbital flight, whether around the sun or any other gravitating body, Dawn is not actually traveling this much faster than when it launched. But the effective change in speed remains a useful measure of the effect of any spacecraft’s propulsive work. Dawn has far exceeded the velocity change achieved by any other spacecraft under its own power. (For a comparison with probes that enter orbit around Mars, refer to this earlier log.) It is remarkable that Dawn’s ion propulsion system has provided nearly the same change in speed as the entire Delta rocket.
Since launch, our readers who have remained on or near Earth have completed 10 revolutions around the sun, covering 62.8 AU (5.8 billion miles, or 9.4 billion kilometers). Orbiting farther from the sun, and thus moving at a more leisurely pace, Dawn has traveled 42.4 AU (3.9 billion miles, or 6.3 billion kilometers). As it climbed away from the sun, up the solar system hill to match its orbit to that of Vesta, it continued to slow down to Vesta’s speed. It had to go even slower to perform its graceful rendezvous with Ceres. In the 10 years since Dawn began its voyage, Vesta has traveled only 40.5 AU (3.8 billion miles, or 6.1 billion kilometers), and the even more sedate Ceres has gone 37.8 AU (3.5 billion miles, or 5.7 billion kilometers). (To develop a feeling for the relative speeds, you might reread this paragraph while paying attention to only one set of units, whether you choose AU, miles, or kilometers. Ignore the other two scales so you can focus on the differences in distance among Earth, Dawn, Vesta and Ceres over the 10 years. You will see that as the strength of the sun’s gravitational grip weakens at greater distance, the corresponding orbital speed decreases.)
Another way to investigate the progress of the mission is to chart how Dawn’s orbit around the sun has changed. This discussion will culminate with even more numbers than we usually include, and readers who prefer not to indulge may skip this material, leaving that much more for the grateful Numerivores. (If you prefer not to skip it, click here.) In order to make the table below comprehensible (and to fulfill our commitment of environmental responsibility), we recycle some more text here on the nature of orbits.
Orbits are ellipses (like flattened circles, or ovals in which the ends are of equal size). So as members of the solar system family (including Earth, Dawn, Vesta and Ceres) follow their individual paths around the sun, they sometimes move closer and sometimes move farther from it.
In addition to orbits being characterized by shape, or equivalently by the amount of flattening (that is, the deviation from being a perfect circle), and by size, they may be described in part by how they are oriented in space. Using the bias of terrestrial astronomers, the plane of Earth’s orbit around the sun (known as the ecliptic) is a good reference. Other planets and interplanetary spacecraft may travel in orbits that are tipped at some angle to that. The angle between the ecliptic and the plane of another body’s orbit around the sun is the inclination of that orbit. Vesta and Ceres do not orbit the sun in the same plane that Earth does, and Dawn must match its orbit to that of its targets. (The major planets orbit closer to the ecliptic, and part of the arduousness of Dawn’s journey has been changing the inclination of its orbit, an energetically expensive task.)
Now we can see how Dawn has done by considering the size and shape (together expressed by the minimum and maximum distances from the sun) and inclination of its orbit on each of its anniversaries. (Experts readily recognize that there is more to describing an orbit than these parameters. Our policy remains that we link to the experts’ websites when their readership extends to one more elliptical galaxy than ours does.)
The table below shows what the orbit would have been if the spacecraft had terminated ion thrusting on its anniversaries; the orbits of its destinations, Vesta and Ceres, are included for comparison. Of course, when Dawn was on the launch pad on Sept. 27, 2007, its orbit around the sun was exactly Earth’s orbit. After launch, it was in its own solar orbit.
from the Sun (AU)
from the Sun (AU)
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2007 (before launch)||0.98||1.02||0.0°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2007 (after launch)||1.00||1.62||0.6°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2008||1.21||1.68||1.4°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2009||1.42||1.87||6.2°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2010||1.89||2.13||6.8°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2011||2.15||2.57||7.1°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2012||2.17||2.57||7.3°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2013||2.44||2.98||8.7°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2014||2.46||3.02||9.8°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2015||2.56||2.98||10.6°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2016||2.56||2.98||10.6°|
|Dawn’s orbit on Sept. 27, 2017||2.56||2.98||10.6°|
For readers who are not overwhelmed by the number of numbers, investing the effort to study the table may help to demonstrate how Dawn patiently transformed its orbit during the course of its mission. Note that six years ago, the spacecraft’s path around the sun was exactly the same as Vesta’s. Achieving that perfect match was, of course, the objective of the long flight that started in the same solar orbit as Earth, and that is how Dawn managed to slip into orbit around Vesta. While simply flying by it would have been far easier, matching orbits with Vesta required the exceptional capability of the ion propulsion system. Without that technology, NASA’s Discovery Program would not have been able to afford a mission to explore the massive protoplanet in such detail. Dawn has long since gone well beyond that. Having discovered so many of Vesta’s secrets, the stalwart adventurer left it behind. No other spacecraft has ever escaped from orbit around one distant solar system object to travel to and orbit still another extraterrestrial destination. From 2012 to 2015, the stalwart craft reshaped and tilted its orbit even more so that now it is identical to Ceres’. Once again, that was essential to accomplishing the intricate celestial choreography in which the behemoth reached out with its gravity and tenderly took hold of the spacecraft. They have been performing an elegant pas de deux ever since.
Even after a decade of daring space travel, flying in deep space atop a blue-green pillar of xenon ions, exploring two of the last uncharted worlds in the inner solar system, overcoming the loss of three reaction wheels, working hard to stretch its shrinking supply of hydrazine, Dawn is ready for more. And so is everyone who yearns for new knowledge, everyone who is curious about the cosmos, and everyone who is exhilarated by bold adventures into the unknown. More is to come. Dawn -- and all those who find the lure of space irresistible -- can look forward to whatever lies ahead for this unique mission.
Dawn is 16,600 miles (26,700 kilometers) from Ceres. It is also 2.92 AU (271 million miles, or 437 million kilometers) from Earth, or 1,080 times as far as the moon and 2.91 times as far as the sun today. Radio signals, traveling at the universal limit of the speed of light, take 49 minutes to make the round trip.
Dr. Marc D. Rayman
4:34 a.m. PDT September 27, 2017
In August and September 1977, two Voyager spacecraft were launched on a Grand Tour of the solar system. In 1973, the mission had been named Mariner Jupiter-Saturn 1977 (MJS ‘77) and was intended to go only as far as Jupiter and Saturn.
In March 1977 the mission name was changed to Voyager. In October 1978, a Voyager Fact Sheet mentioned the possibility of sending Voyager 2 to Uranus and Neptune. It would happen only if the primary science objectives were met at Saturn first. Even though the extended mission was not certain before launch, Voyager engineers (unofficially) designed and built the spacecraft to be capable of navigating to Uranus and Neptune, and surviving the longer trip. On-board computers were reprogrammed during the voyage, giving the spacecraft the ability to successfully return many more images and much more information than were expected. It’s unlikely the Voyager team imagined that both spacecraft would still be operating 40 years after launch.
For more information about the history of JPL, contact the JPL Archives for assistance. [Archival and other sources: Various Voyager and JPL History web pages; Voyager Fact Sheet, 10/6/1978; Section 260 photo album and index.
Projecting regional changes
“Sea level scientists have a pretty good grasp on global mean sea level,” said Steve Nerem, a professor in the Aerospace Engineering Sciences Department at the University of Colorado and the team leader for NASA’s Sea Level Change Team (N-SLCT). “It’s the regional sea level change that’s the next big question, the next big step for sea level science,” he added.
Nerem and much of the rest of the N-SLCT were in New York City this July where more than 300 scientists from 42 countries gathered at Columbia University for a weeklong Regional Sea Level Changes and Coastal Impacts Conference. The international conference was organized by the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), Climate and Ocean – Variability, Predictability, and Change (CLIVAR), and the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission and was co-sponsored by NASA.
Regional sea level change is more variable, over both space and time, than global sea level change and can diverge by up to 7 inches (20 centimeters) or more from the global mean. Additionally, making regional projections about future sea level differs from making global mean sea level projections. This is due to the fact that different processes contribute to sea level change in coastal regions.
Global sea level rise is caused by thermal expansion of warmer water plus contributions from ice sheets and glaciers. Regional sea level change, especially along coastlines, is influenced by additional factors, including vertical land movements, waves and tides, and winds and storms. So in order to estimate sea level inundation and flood risk, scientists have to understand all the factors that contribute to extreme water levels such as local sea level rise, land subsidence, tides, waves and storm surge.
Members of the N-SLCT understand the importance of studying coastal sea level change and improving the accuracy of regional projections. Ben Hamlington, assistant professor in the Ocean, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences Department at Old Dominion University in Norfolk, Virginia, and upcoming team leader for N-SLCT is serious about understanding sea level.
“The overarching theme of my scientific research,” he said, is “to consistently improve regional sea level projections.” Manhattan, where the conference was held, for example, lies within a few feet of sea level, and furthermore, the U.S. East Coast has some of the highest amounts of projected sea level increase.
“Global means aren’t very useful for someone who’s on the coast of Virginia where I live,” Hamlington said. A main part of the challenge of predicting regional sea level is that what causes the sea level changes and the flooding varies dramatically from place to place. Hamlington described a term called “nuisance flooding,” which is a type of persistent tidal flooding that leads to public inconveniences like road closures and backed-up storm water systems.
“Basically it means your path to work has to change because a certain road is blocked or impassable. You can still get to work, but it might take longer,” he explained. Right now, these nuisance-flooding events occur multiple times a year. But as sea level continues to rise, the nuisance flooding will get more and more frequent and will become even more of a problem. “Where I live, it’s hard to separate the pure science from the applications. With all this flooding, the broader significance of your work is very clear,” he said.
In Norfolk, Virginia, glacial isostatic adjustment (GIA) is around 0.04 inches (1 millimeter) per year, another millimeter per year of subsidence is due to slow subsidence into the Chesapeake Bay Meteor Impact Crater plus ground water pumping. Finally add 0.08 inches (2 millimeters) per year from the ocean rising and “You get the long-term tide gauge rate of relative sea level rise of just lower than 0.20 inches (5 millimeters) per year over the last 100 years. That’s a pretty high rate of sea level rise over a long period of time,” Hamlington explained. “Beyond nuisance flooding, there are also extreme events,” he continued. “During a storm event, you can get several feet of water in some parts of Norfolk.”
Stakeholders and decision makers are the ones driving the demand for improved regional sea level projections, Hamlington continued. “They’re the ones driving the discussion toward regional projections and that’s what’s needed for planning efforts.” These stakeholders include state and local public works officers responsible for infrastructure such as stadiums, roads, seawalls, and dykes plus pumps, water utilities, other utilities, businesses, and coastal inhabitants.
Scientists are responsible for helping society. This is why decision makers and scientists have come together to co-produce actionable science, to discuss how to communicate and collaborate, and to ensure that sea level science is being understood by the adaptation community.
“This is one of the biggest sea level conferences that we’ve had, when everybody who is working in different areas of the field comes together,” said Nerem. There were presentations on a variety of techniques to measure sea level change: tide gauges, measurements in marshes, paleo-sea level, corals, but from the perspective of the N-SLCT, “ We’re really focused on how to use remote sensing, satellite altimetry from Jason-1, 2 and 3 and Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) combined with GPS measurements to improve regional sea level measurements and projections.”
Nerem’s project targets regions around the globe that are susceptible to inundation but don’t have much measurement infrastructure, such as Bangladesh. Many of these regions do not have detailed digital elevation models or 50 years of tide gauge measurements like we do in the United States. “If we use our satellite techniques and test them in a place we understand, then we can go out where we don’t have that infrastructure and assess future sea level change in those regions.”
The N-SLCT hopes to leverage the satellite observations as much as possible to try to better understand future regional sea level change. This will help decision makers, coastal managers and stakeholders better adapt and prepare for the impacts of sea level rise.
According to Nerem, “We would like to produce a new assessment of future regional sea level change that benefits from the extensive record of satellite measurements collected by NASA.”
Thank you for reading,
In December 1994, a group of Mars Pathfinder team members gathered for a photo with the Sojourner Rover model.
In December 1994, a group of Mars Pathfinder team members gathered for a photo with the Sojourner Rover model. They were working on rover technology development efforts about two years before the anticipated launch date.
On February 1, 1995, Mars Day was held on the JPL mall – an event for JPLers, schoolchildren, and visitors. The Office of Mars Exploration sponsored presentations, booths, and demonstrations of technology from Mars Pathfinder and Mars Global Surveyor. Mars Exploration Program Manager Donna Shirley said, “We wanted people from other projects and those who aren’t involved in our office to see what we’re up to, what kind of technologies we’ve developed. We’re excited about what we’re doing and we wanted to share that excitement.”
If you would like to help the Archives staff identify people in this photo, please see the partial list at https://pub-lib.jpl.nasa.gov/docushare/dsweb/Services/Document-2749 (click on title to open PDF document).
For more information about the history of JPL, contact the JPL Archives for assistance. [Archival and other sources: Collection JPL508, various issues of Universe, photo index, Allen Sirotta, Brian Wilcox, and David Braun.]
Orbiting the only dwarf planet inside the orbit of Neptune, Dawn is healthy and continuing to carry out its assignments at Ceres with the masterful skill to be expected for such an experienced space explorer.
As Earth and Ceres took up positions on opposite sides of the sun for the first part of this month, the probe operated for almost two weeks without being able to count on assistance from its human handlers, even if it encountered a serious problem. The powerful interference of the sun could have prevented radio communications. But Dawn had no need. When the changing geometry allowed the radio silence to break, the ship confirmed that all was well.
Dawn’s primary responsibility in this phase of its mission continues to be monitoring cosmic rays. For eight months in 2015-2016, circling closer to Ceres than the International Space Station is to Earth, the probe measured nuclear radiation that contains the signatures of geologically important elements down to about a yard (meter) underground. Since December, when it reached a much greater altitude, it has been listening to the faint hiss of cosmic rays. Scientists will mathematically remove that from the earlier recordings of Ceres. This procedure will allow them to squeeze even more information out of the low-altitude census of atomic species.
Dawn had to fly far enough above Ceres that it could measure the cosmic rays alone, rather than the combination of Ceres radiation and cosmic radiation it detected at low altitude. The mission continued to go so well after they had sent the spacecraft to a high altitude, that the team devised more new objectives. To start, they had Dawn photograph some very nice scenes of a gibbous Ceres. Then they guided it through two months of intricate orbital maneuvers, allowing the spacecraft to fly across the line from the sun to Ceres, providing a view of the fully illuminated dwarf planet (like a full moon). In addition to yielding lovely new movies and color pictures, these opposition measurements may help scientists discover details of the material on the ground that would otherwise be impossible to descry from orbit.
That orbit extended so high that it took two months to complete one long elliptical loop around Ceres. The opposition observations worked extremely well, but it’s not a convenient orbit for most other investigations (except the cosmic ray measurements). Therefore, earlier this month, mission controllers instructed the spacecraft to use its ion engine to adjust the orbit again, this time reducing the period for one revolution to 30 days and improving the opportunities for future scientific measurements.
In coming months, we will look ahead to new observations the team is just beginning to consider. It has not been assured that further activities would be possible. For half of the time since it embarked on its extraordinary extraterrestrial expedition, Dawn has managed to complete its work without the use of the full complement of equipment it was supposed to have at its disposal. Even with the failures of three reaction wheels, however, the mission has far exceeded its original objectives and well outlasted its expected lifetime. Nevertheless, the spacecraft’s lifetime certainly is limited, most likely by the dwindling supply of hydrazine, although possibly instead by one of the many risks that are part of the very nature of conducting complex operations in the unforgiving far reaches of space. For now, however, it appears that Dawn has enough life left in it to warrant pursuing even more new goals.
On July 16, as the sophisticated ship from distant Earth continues to carry out its mission, it will celebrate the 271st birthday of Giuseppe Piazzi, the first person to spot Ceres. It was a faint point of light amid the stars, one tiny jewel among too many to count. When the 54-year-old made his serendipitous discovery, which gave him an honored place in the history of science, he certainly could not have foreseen what Dawn has now seen. (And there's no reason he should have. He was an astronomer and mathematician, not a clairvoyant.)
In addition to revealing Ceres’ overall appearance, Dawn has acquired a wealth of pictures and other information that scientists are now actively studying. The mission has shown us mesmerizing bright regions and an extensive network of ground fractures in Occator Crater. The shapes and sizes of many craters provide intriguing clues about the strength and other properties of the interior, and the measurements of the gravity field yield still more insight into the inside. The towering cryovolcano Ahuna Mons rises up as a compelling monument to internal geological forces (which we will discuss below). Organic chemicals spotted in and near Ernutet Crater and elsewhere are of special interest for astrobiology. We see ice on the ground and have determined there is a tremendous amount underground (and there may be liquid underground as well). Piazzi discovered -- and Dawn uncovered -- a truly alien world, and its vastness and diversity are part of what make it so fascinating.
Among the minerals Dawn has found is a group known as carbonates, and they are abundant on Ceres. We see two types there. One, which is omnipresent, is known as dolomite and contains calcium and magnesium. It is mixed with another Cerean mineral, serpentine. A different type of carbonate is prominent in Occator Crater. The sodium carbonate there reflects so much sunlight that it seems almost to be luminous, like a giant spotlight casting its brilliance far out into space, perhaps to show off that it contains the highest concentration of any kind of carbonates known anywhere in the solar system except Earth. Occator’s specific kind, sodium carbonate, has been observed only on Earth and in the plumes of Saturn’s watery moon Enceladus. Interestingly, the carbonates and serpentine are formed by chemical reactions between rocks and water under high pressure. How could these minerals be both widespread and exposed?
One possibility is that they formed deep underground and were later pushed to the surface by internal geological processes. Just as on Earth, those internal forces are mostly powered by heat from the decay of radioactive elements. The heat is carried away by the motion of the material, just as heating water at the bottom of a pot causes it to rise and then make complex convection patterns. The strength of the forces depends on the rate at which the heat leaks from the deep interior to the ground. That is, heat is a form of energy, and a faster flow of heat energy (and thus of material) would provide a more powerful internal engine to drive minerals to the surface.
Heat flows from hot (far underground) to cold (the surface, which is exposed to space). It is at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit (50 degrees Celsius) colder near Ceres’ north and south poles than near the equator. That means the strength of the geological pressure pushing minerals to the surface should depend on the latitude, which would translate into different compositions at different latitudes. But that is not what Dawn sees. The minerals show up everywhere we look. Their prevalence is a fact that is inconsistent with a deep underground origin followed by a heat-driven movement to the surface. Science tells us we need to formulate a different explanation for why minerals produced in water under high pressure now can be found on the ground.
Scientists recognize a more likely explanation. The minerals may have formed in an ocean early in Ceres’ history, when radioactive elements were so abundant that it would have been warm enough to keep a large volume of water as a liquid. But as Ceres aged, it would have cooled (perhaps some readers have experienced this as well), because the supply of radioactive elements would have gradually been depleted as they decayed. Almost the entire ocean would have frozen, encasing Ceres in a shell of ice. But that wouldn’t be the end of the story.
Ice cannot last long on Ceres (except in special places). Cold though it is on that world, there is enough warmth from the distant sun that ice sublimates, turning from a solid into a gas as the water molecules escape into space. Even as that gradual phenomenon occurred at the microscopic level, ice was lost through a much more dramatic and abrupt process. It was blasted away by asteroids that slammed into it. The rain of rocks that fall onto Ceres over millions of years is a familiar hazard to anyone who has lived in the main asteroid belt for millions of years. In fact, scientists estimate that a frozen ocean three miles (five kilometers) thick could have been lost in only a few tens of millions of years, a blink in geological time. (And even if that ice shell had been much thicker, it would still have been lost on a geologically short timescale.)
Before it froze and dispersed, chemical reactions between the water and rocks would have produced a rich inventory of minerals. As Dawn peers down from its orbital perch, it sees their testimony to that long-lost ocean. And even now there may still be reservoirs of liquid within Ceres, as it is warm enough inside.
None of this could have been imagined by Piazzi on the night he first glimpsed Ceres from his observatory in Sicily. Because he wasn’t prescient, he also did not expect that what he discovered would be known at times as a planet, an asteroid, a dwarf planet and eventually as "home" by Dawn. Nor would he have anticipated the Tunisian-Sicilian War, the extraordinary intellectual achievements in the scientific discoveries of evolution, relativity and quantum mechanics, or the inventions of the safety pin, granola, integrated circuits and remotely controlled interplanetary spacecraft. If Piazzi thought seriously about the unique successes of science or about the nature of exploration, he did not leave much of a record.
For the perspective of someone who did, let’s go back to a time before Piazzi’s 1801 sighting of Ceres but after the dwarf planet’s formation nearly 4.6 billion years ago. Sometime between 1607 and 1620, the polymath and early champion of modern science
Francis Bacon wrote this in Cogitata et Visa (Thoughts and Conclusions):
It would disgrace us, now that the wide spaces of the material globe, the lands and seas, have been broached and explored, if the limits of the intellectual globe should be set by the narrow discoveries of the ancients. Nor are those two enterprises, the opening up of the earth and the opening up of the sciences, linked and yoked together in any trivial way. Distant voyages and travels have brought to light many things in nature, which may throw fresh light on human philosophy and science and correct by experience the opinions and conjectures of the ancients.
Bacon realized that archaic ideas had such a tight grip that they prevented the expansion of Europe’s intellectual horizons. The startling and exciting discoveries of the explorers who pushed the physical horizons during the century or so that preceded his writings broke that suffocating squeeze. New realizations about the reality of the natural world, and how dramatically it differed from the untested notions of old, inspired an ardor for intellectual exploration as daring and vigorous as what had been undertaken in traversing those distant lands and seas.
The reward has been discoveries by Piazzi and uncounted other scientists who have revealed the staggering richness of nature in all its forms, a universe of such majesty, such beauty, such complexity that it would seem to defy explanation. And yet science not only uncovers myriad mysteries but also lifts the veil, revealing inner workings and showing us why things are the way they are. The ultimate rewards of science are knowledge and understanding.
Dawn is both a beneficiary of and a contributor to the extraordinary successes of science since Bacon’s time. The mission’s "distant voyages and travels have brought to light many things in nature." And its exploration of alien lands and its journeys on interplanetary seas continue to "throw fresh light on human philosophy and science." The real beneficiaries are we ourselves. How fortunate we all are to behold what that light has illuminated!
Dawn is 20,000 miles (32,200 kilometers) from Ceres. It is also 3.67 AU (341 million miles, or 549 million kilometers) from Earth, or 1,400 times as far as the moon and 3.61 times as far as the sun today. Radio signals, traveling at the universal limit of the speed of light, take one hour and one minute to make the round trip.
Dr. Marc D. Rayman
4:00 p.m. PDT June 30, 2017
Reflections at the top of the world
It was 11:30 in the morning and GLISTIN-A instrument engineer Ron Muellerschoen and I were in northern Greenland at the Thule Air Base pier looking over the frozen Wolstenholme Bay. We’d been talking about the time Ron was wearing shorts here during the summer, but today it was the typical -22 Fahrenheit (-30 Celsius.) And even though over the past week we’d somehow gotten used to the cold and I was wearing a big parka, my legs were starting to get cold after walking for an hour. So we decided to head back.
As we turned around to go, I was struck in the face by the sun’s rays reflecting off the ice-covered ground. The brightness was astounding. And in that instant the meaning of “albedo” was seared into my brain in a way that went beyond reading about the science or looking at illustrations and animations.
There was something special about the experience of having the rays of the sun, which was sitting low in the high latitude sky, hit the ice surface at that extremely low angle and reflect off into my eyes.
Albedo is a measure of how reflective a surface is, how much light energy bounces off and reflects away and how much light energy gets absorbed. (Think hot asphalt on a sunny day. Black asphalt has a low albedo and absorbs light energy, while the brightest white has the highest albedo and reflects the light.)
I stood for a moment, looking at the ground — a hard, dry, crusty mixture of ice and snow that made an exceptionally satisfying crunch crunch noise as our boots marched through it — and tried to figure out the color: 50 shades of white. I settled on white/light blue/silvery sparkle. Due to the low angle of the sun, the tiniest rough edge the size and shape of a pebble on the ground’s textured surface left a long, dark shadow.
No matter where we were or how we stood or what time of day, all day, every day, there were always long shadows — crazy long shadows. At 78 degrees north latitude, a full 12 degrees above the Arctic Circle, the sun will never be overhead. Never. I know that seems unbelievable, but even during the summer solstice, when Earth’s North Pole is tilted toward the sun, or during the four summer months of 24-hour daylight, the sun is always low, low, low at this latitude.
Low on the horizon
In that moment, I also understood another science question that had been bothering me. I’d been wondering why the meter-thick sea ice hadn’t yet begun to melt. Even though it was the end of March, even though the equinox had passed, the sun was out and the days were getting longer. In fact, up here the days were getting much longer, very quickly. On March 23, just three days after the equinox, we were already having 14-hour days with sunsets lasting past 9 p.m. That’s because in these high latitudes, the day length can increase by as much as 40 minutes per day. And by mid-April, just a few weeks after spring equinox, there will be 24 hours of daylight and the sun won’t set again until September.
By mid-April the meter-thick layer of frozen seawater that covers the sea surface and fills the fjords will completely melt and expose the dark blue ocean underneath. But today, even in this brilliant sunshine, even on this day of 14-hour sunlight, the ocean was still completely frozen over.
But “Why?” I’d been wondering. Why, with all this extra sunshine, was the sea surface still so frozen? And why did that hard, dry, crusty mixture of ice and snow still remain on the ground?
In that instant, as the glint of the sunlight reflecting off the icy ground hit my face, I knew exactly why. It was the extraordinarily low angle of the sunlight that bounced right off the stunning bright whiteness of the ice. The sunlight was not absorbed by the ice and snow and instead was reflected away. It wouldn’t be until another month or so that the sun would get a little higher in the sky. And although the sun would never be directly overhead up here, it would be high enough to begin melting the ice.
No matter how much a person studies Greenland, or the northern latitudes, or albedo, or Earth in general, going into the field to experience those things can change your entire understanding of the world and how it works. I stood there for a moment, just allowing the high-latitude sun’s cold rays to glance off the snowy ice and shine straight into my face.
NASA’s Oceans Melting Greenland (OMG) team is here in Greenland; here to find out specifically how much ice the island is losing due to warmer ocean waters around the coastline. There is almost no ocean data in remote places like this, but OMG is busy working to change that, studying the complex ocean processes that affect Greenland's coastline because gathering data is critical to understanding Earth’s complex climate. This information will help us understand the amount of sea level rise we're going to have around the world.
Thank you for reading,
In October 1967 Mariner 5 had just reached Venus, JPL was looking forward to the 10th anniversary of Explorer 1 and the launches of Surveyor 6 and 7 to the Moon, and Mariner 6 and 7 were in development.
When visitors were escorted into the lobby of the Space Flight Operations Facility (SFOF), they saw the reception/security desk, a waiting area, and this new exhibit. It explained the flow of data from a spacecraft to the Deep Space Network stations (or Deep Space Instrumentation Facilities) to the SFOF. A series of photos showed various work stations in the SFOF, as well as the technology being used in the facility (in the main operations area and behind the scenes). During 1967 and 1968, JPL hosted visits by NASA staff, members of Congress, foreign dignitaries, JPL contractors/partners, former employees, student groups, professional groups, celebrities, and the press.
For more information about the history of JPL, contact the JPL Archives for assistance. [Archival sources: 318 and P photo albums and index.]