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Topic - Earthquake Prediction

Northridge Collection, Earthquake Engineering Research Center, University of California, Berkeley

Earthquake Prediction:
A Practical Approach to an Impossible Problem

presented by Dr. Lucile M. Jones
Visiting Research Associate,
California Institute of Technology
Scientist-in-charge for Southern California,
U.S. Geological Survey

     If you wish to view a tape of this show; Please contact Sherri Rowe-Lopez at (818) 354-6170.

Thursday, August 30 The von Kármán Auditorium at JPL
4800 Oak Grove Drive
Pasadena, CA
Friday, August 31 The Forum at Pasadena City College
1570 East Colorado Blvd.
Pasadena, CA

Both lectures begin at 7 p.m.

Admission is free. Seating is limited.
For more information, call (818) 354-0112.

Most seismologists have come to believe that predicting the time of one particular earthquake is a very difficult, if not impossible, task. At the same time, scientists are issuing more statements about earthquake risk on long and short time frames than ever before. The key to the difference is a move from trying to predict individual events to evaluating the consequences of probability rates. Long-term assessments of the earthquake potentials of different faults and probability studies of foreshock and aftershock activity are both useful ways to understand earthquake risk.

This lecture will explore this evolution in earthquake prediction. It will show why classical earthquake prediction is such a difficult problem and how several different approaches have failed. It will also show how a probabilistic approach has allowed us to produce valuable information even when we do not know how to predict earthquakes, and most importantly the implications of this new type of information for all of us who live with earthquakes.

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