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CLASS:PUBLIC
CREATED:20121126T193621Z
DESCRIPTION:Forecasting Quakes: Facts\, Myths and Possibilities\nThe recent
news of Italian scientists convicted in a criminal court of failing to pr
ovide adequate warning of an impending earthquake has starkly highlighted
some of the limitations and misunderstandings of the science behind earthq
uake forecasts and predictions. Are predictions even possible? What differ
ence is there between a prediction and a forecast? What scientific princip
les allow (or rule out) useful earthquake forecasts? This talk will review
the past history and basic principles behind efforts to anticipate the lo
cation\, size and timing of seismic events. New techniques in data collect
ion and improved understanding of how the Earth works is leading to ever-i
mproving forecast capability\, but will the "holy grail" of routine specif
ic earthquake predictions ever be a reality? These questions will be explo
red and some thoughts about impending southern California quakes will be d
iscussed.\nSpeaker: Dr. Greg Lyzenga\, Technical Staff\, Solid Earth Group
\, Earth Sciences Section\nJet Propulsion Laboratory \n\nThe von Kármán
Auditorium at JPL\n4800 Oak Grove Drive\nPasadena\, CA\n
DTEND;TZID="Pacific Standard Time":20130620T200000
DTSTAMP:20121126T193621Z
DTSTART;TZID="Pacific Standard Time":20130620T190000
LAST-MODIFIED:20121126T193621Z
LOCATION:The von Kármán Auditorium at JPL
PRIORITY:5
SEQUENCE:0
SUMMARY;LANGUAGE=en-us:The von Kármán Lecture Series: 2013
TRANSP:OPAQUE
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0100000000137DA3891750D458745B66928B77280
X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\nForecasting Quakes: Facts\, Myths and Possibilities
\n\n<
/SPAN>The recent news of I
talian scientists convicted in a criminal court of failing to provide adeq
uate warning of an impending earthquake has starkly highlighted some of th
e limitations and misunderstandings of the science behind earthquake forec
asts and predictions. Are predictions even possible? What difference is th
ere between a prediction and a forecast? What scientific principles allow
(or rule out) useful earthquake forecasts? This talk will review the past
history and basic principles behind efforts to anticipate the location\, s
ize and timing of seismic events. New techniques in data collection and im
proved understanding of how the Earth works is leading to ever-improving f
orecast capability\, but will the "\;holy grail"\; of routine spec
ific earthquake predictions ever be a reality? These questions will be exp
lored and some thoughts about impending southern California quakes will be
discussed.
\n\nSpea
ker: \; \; \; \; \; \; \; Dr. Greg Lyzenga\, T
echnical Staff\, Solid Earth Group\, Earth Sciences Section
\nJet Propu
lsion Laboratory \; \; \; \; \; \;
\
n
\n\nThe von Kármán Auditorium at JPL
\n4800 Oak Grove
Drive
\nPasadena\, CA
\n\n\n
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